Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in mRNA COVID-19-vaccinated and unvaccinated populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To summarise the available evidence on the risk of myocarditis and/or pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, compared with the risk among unvaccinated individuals in the absence of COVID-19 infection. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science and WHO Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease), preprint repositories (medRxiv and bioRxiv), reference lists and grey literature were searched from 1 December 2020 until 31 October 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Epidemiological studies of individuals of any age who received at least one dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, reported a risk of myo/pericarditis and compared the risk of myo/pericarditis to individuals who did not receive any dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers independently conducted screening and data extraction. The rate of myo/pericarditis among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups was recorded, and the rate ratios were calculated. Additionally, the total number of individuals, case ascertainment criteria, percentage of males and history of SARS-CoV-2 infection were extracted for each study. Meta-analysis was done using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria, of which six were included in the quantitative synthesis. Our meta-analysis indicates that within 30-day follow-up period, vaccinated individuals were twice as likely to develop myo/pericarditis in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to unvaccinated individuals, with a rate ratio of 2.05 (95% CI 1.49-2.82). CONCLUSION: Although the absolute number of observed myo/pericarditis cases remains quite low, a higher risk was detected in those who received mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations compared with unvaccinated individuals in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in preventing severe illnesses, hospitalisations and deaths, future research should focus on accurately determining the rates of myo/pericarditis linked to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, understanding the biological mechanisms behind these rare cardiac events and identifying those most at risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.014 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".