Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Vancouver Island Coast Using Stochastic Rupture Models for the Cascadia Subduction Earthquakes
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tsunami hazard analysis is an essential step for designing buildings and infrastructure and for safeguarding people and assets in coastal areas. Coastal communities on Vancouver Island are under threat from the Cascadia megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis. Due to the deterministic nature of current megathrust earthquake scenarios, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis has not been conducted for the coast of Vancouver Island. To address this research gap, this study presents a new probabilistic tsunami hazard model for Vancouver Island from the Cascadia megathrust subduction events. To account for uncertainties of the possible rupture scenarios more comprehensively, time-dependent earthquake occurrence modeling and stochastic rupture modeling are integrated. The time-dependent earthquake model can capture a multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival time data on the Cascadia megathrust events. On the other hand, the stochastic rupture model can consider variable fault geometry, position, and earthquake slip distribution within the subduction zone. The results indicate that the consideration of different inter-arrival time distributions can result in noticeable differences in terms of site-specific tsunami hazard curves and uniform tsunami hazard curves at different return period levels. At present, the use of the one-component renewal model tends to overestimate the tsunami hazard values compared to the three-component Gaussian mixture model. With the increase in the elapsed time since the last event and the duration of tsunami hazard assessment, the differences tend to be smaller. Inspecting the regional variability of the tsunami hazards, specific segments of the Vancouver Island coast are likely to experience higher tsunami hazards due to the directed tsunami waves from the main subduction zone and due to the local underwater topography.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it