Constraints on City and Neighborhood Growth: The Central Role of Housing Supply
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The US urban population increased by almost 50 percent between 1980 and 2020, with this growth heavily concentrated in the Sun Belt and at the fringes of metropolitan areas. This paper considers the role of housing supply in shaping the growth of cities and neighborhoods. Housing supply constraints have meant that demand growth has increasingly manifested as price growth rather than as increases in housing units or population in larger and denser metropolitan areas and neighborhoods. New housing is provided at increasingly higher cost in areas that have higher intensity of existing development and more restrictive regulatory environments. Both forces have strengthened over time, making quantity supplied less responsive to growing demand, driving housing price growth in many areas, and pushing housing quantity growth further out into urban fringes. As a result of such pressures on the cost of new construction, the US has recently experienced more rapid price growth and a declining influence of new construction on the housing stock.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it