Liouville-Based Predictive Models for Occupancy Estimation Using Small Training Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this article, we propose a predictive model based on Beta-Liouville (BL) and inverted BL (IBL) mixture models for occupancy estimation in smart buildings. This model gives better results than point estimate methods, when the training data is small, because it is based on data-driven predictive distribution. The Liouville-based mixture models were chosen because of their flexibility in fitting symmetric and asymmetric distributions. However, the large number of parameters of BL and IBL increases the uncertainty in approximating the upper bound of the predictive distribution, hence we propose an optimization scheme in which reliability is investigated and verified. In addition, we extend our work presented by giving more details about the predictive model and by studying the occupancy estimation in smart buildings problems in depth. Indeed, different occupancy scenarios are considered to show the merits of our predictive framework. This article aims to address the problem of occupancy estimation with a focus on scenarios where small training data sets are available. By developing robust predictive models that can generalize well with limited data, this research seeks to facilitate the early adoption and practical application of occupancy models in various domains.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".