Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison Between Risankizumab and Ustekinumab for Induction and Maintenance Treatment of Moderately to Severely Active Crohn’s Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Risankizumab (RZB) and ustekinumab (UST), interleukin (IL)-23 and IL-12/23 inhibitors, respectively, are approved treatments for moderately to severely active Crohn’s disease (CD); direct comparison between the two is ongoing. We indirectly compared efficacy of RZB versus UST using data from phase 3 trials (RZB: NCT03104413; NCT03105128; NCT03105102; UST: NCT01369329; NCT01369342; NCT01369355). Matching-adjusted indirect comparison was conducted using individual patient-level data from RZB trials and published aggregated data from UST trials. During induction, patients received RZB 600 mg intravenous (IV) at weeks 0, 4, and 8 or a single dose of UST 6 mg/kg IV at week 0. During maintenance, patients received RZB 180 or 360 mg subcutaneous (SC) or UST 90 mg SC every 8 or 12 weeks to 52 weeks. Outcomes included proportion of patients achieving Crohn’s Disease Activity Index (CDAI) response (decrease of ≥ 100 points or total score < 150) or remission (CDAI ≤ 150) and endoscopic improvement (measured by the Simple Endoscopic Score in CD [SES-CD]; response, ≥ 50% reduction from baseline; remission, SES-CD ≤ 2) following induction/baseline. Higher proportions of patients achieved clinical and endoscopic outcomes with RZB vs. UST induction treatment, resulting in significantly (p ≤ 0.05) greater percent differences (95% confidence intervals) between groups for CDAI remission (15% [5%, 25%]) and endoscopic response (26% [13%, 40%]) and remission (9% [0%, 19%]). Following maintenance, rates of CDAI remission were similar (range − 0.3% to − 5.0%) for RZB vs. UST. Differences for endoscopic response and remission ranged from 9.3% to 27.7% and 11.6% to 12.5%, respectively; differences were significant (p < 0.05) for endoscopic response for both doses of RZB compared to UST 12-week dosing. This indirect comparison demonstrated higher rates of clinical and endoscopic outcomes during induction for RZB compared to UST; CDAI remission following maintenance was comparable. Direct comparisons of RZB and UST are warranted to validate these findings. Using individual patient-level data from risankizumab and aggregated data from ustekinumab phase 3 Crohn’s disease trials, we indirectly compared efficacy of risankizumab and ustekinumab to determine whether rates of improvement in disease symptoms (clinical) and endoscopic outcomes differed between treatments. Findings showed that clinical and endoscopic outcomes were more frequently achieved for patients receiving risankizumab versus ustekinumab after induction, while most maintenance outcomes were comparable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".