The Impact of International Crude Oil Prices on the Monetary Sector in Indonesia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Volatility in international crude oil prices can have a significant impact on economic stability and potentially disrupt the achievement of sustainable development goals.This research aims to identify the impact of international crude oil prices on Indonesia's monetary sector.The study utilized monthly secondary data from 2017:01-2022:11 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model for analysis.The variables used were International Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, Exchange Rates, and Consumer Expectations Index.The novelty of this research is the inclusion of consumer expectations as a variable.The results show that there is cointegration between the variables, and a reciprocal connection occurs between Exchange Rates and International Crude Oil Prices.The Impulse Response Function analysis indicates that changes in International Crude Oil Prices have a long-term impact on Inflation, Exchange Rates, and Consumer Expectations Index.Based on Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis, changes in the International Crude Oil Prices will have a significant impact on Inflation and Exchange Rates.In terms of sustainable development, the increasing crude oil prices may lead to greater consumption of renewable energy through substitution behavior.Mitigation policies can be prepared for both the short and long term phases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".