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Record W4382603142 · doi:10.1002/fut.22422

Hedging options in a hidden Markov‐switching local‐volatility model via stochastic flows and a Monte‐Carlo method

2023· article· en· W4382603142 on OpenAlexaff
Robert J. Elliott, Tak Kuen Siu

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Futures Markets · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicStochastic processes and financial applications
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
FundersAustralian Research CouncilMacquarie University
KeywordsLocal volatilityStochastic volatilityMonte Carlo methodMartingale (probability theory)EconometricsMarkov chain Monte CarloHedgeUnobservableVolatility (finance)Markov chainMathematicsApplied mathematicsStatistical physicsEconomicsPhysicsStatistics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The hedging of European contingent claims in a continuous‐time hidden Markov‐regime‐switching diffusion model is discussed using stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms and Monte‐Carlo simulations. Specifically, the price dynamics of an underlying risky asset are governed by a continuous‐time hidden Markov‐modulated local‐volatility model. Filtering theory is used to estimate the unobservable drift given observable price information and to define a filtered market with complete observations. The delta–hedge ratio of a European option is derived using a martingale representation and stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms. The numerical computation of the delta–hedge ratio is estimated via Monte‐Carlo simulations. Numerical results for illustrating the proposed method and the (relative) importance of the impacts of the information risk and the local‐volatility parametrizations on the delta–hedge ratio are provided for the case of European call options.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.819
Threshold uncertainty score0.686

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.020
GPT teacher head0.258
Teacher spread0.238 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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