Do strong oligopolies reverse Green Paradox effects?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In a competitive market renewable energy subsidies or postponement of carbon pricing tend to boost emissions and global warming in the short run. This so-called Green Paradox effect may be reversed if fossil-fuel firms operate under an oligopoly and the number of members is low enough. A reversal of the Green Paradox always occurs under a fossil fuel monopoly. If the extraction costs of fossil fuel depend on the aggregate remaining stock of reserves, Green Paradox effects vanish if the number of oligopolists becomes infinitely large. For an intermediate number of members, a Green Paradox occurs. The strength of the Green Paradox effect depends non-monotonically on the number of oligopolists. We also show that a Green Paradox is more likely for higher slopes of the demand curve, higher sensitivities of unit extraction costs with respect to remaining reserves, and lower interest rates.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it