North American Cold Spells Modulate North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones and Extreme Weather in Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent research has established a statistical link between North American cold spells (CS) and concurrent wet or windy extremes in Europe. Here, we investigate whether such a link can be related to changes in the characteristics of north Atlantic extratropical cyclones (hereafter cyclones). Despite large regions of anomalous baroclinicity during periods of North American CS, the number of cyclones across the north Atlantic as a whole is comparable to climatology. We however find that CS over different North American regions are associated with different large-scale atmospheric configurations, that enhance the jet stream in the vicinity of the CS but result in different upper level wind anomalies in the east Atlantic. These in turn modulate the regional distributions and characteristics of cyclones in the north Atlantic and Europe. For eastern Canada CS, the north Atlantic jet extends over northern Europe, with the Atlantic storm track as a whole experiencing more intense cyclones which then affect France, the British Isles and Northern Europe. For eastern United States CS, the jet is displaced equatorward and extends over southern Europe, with a significantly heightened number of cyclones affecting Iberia, France and Southern Europe. For central Canada CS, the jet is displaced north of climatology and only partly extends over Europe, resulting in an anomalously high cyclone density in the eastern Atlantic and a higher number of cyclones affecting Iberia only. For eastern Canada and eastern United States CS, we observe a significantly heightened occurrence of cyclones undergoing explosive deepening. Our results provide a dynamical explanation for previous statistical findings on the concurrence of north American CS and wet or windy extremes over Europe.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".