A large-scale disturbance mapping ensemble through data-driven regionalization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mapping and monitoring disturbances in vegetation over large areas demand reliable approaches and accurate end-user maps. Methods and algorithms have been developed to meet satisfactory disturbance map accuracies, and the combination of multiple approaches has shown promise as a reliable alternative to any single method. However, extracting meaningful disturbance information from these combined methods is still challenging. Data variance from environmental conditions and disturbance drivers leads to spatial-temporal heterogeneity in land surfaces over large areas, which results in mapping errors. We evaluated the effectiveness of ensemble classification and data-driven regionalization for mapping vegetation disturbances at a broad scale. Using Google’s Earth Engine cloud computing platform, our ensemble approach combines multispectral LandTrendr outputs reflecting preliminary disturbance information in a Random Forest model to map disturbances in Minas Gerais, Brazil. We then applied an unsupervised clustering technique to perform data-driven regionalization of our study area using several sources of environmental and anthropogenic information and analysed gains and losses in map accuracies. Our results indicated gains in accuracy by the ensemble method compared to non-ensemble methods of disturbance mapping, which ranged from 7.3 to 29.9% in overall accuracy at the 5% significance level. Data-driven regionalization addressed complexities arising from variability in vegetation types, local climate, and topography across our study area, identifying climate and seasonal metrics as important variables for reducing uncertainties in vegetation disturbance maps. The integration of these techniques has revealed significant potential for increasing map accuracy and has provided important insights into the development of disturbance mapping methods in heterogeneous environments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".