Prediction of Psoriatic Arthritis in Patients With Psoriasis Using <scp>DNA</scp> Methylation Profiles
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an immune-mediated inflammatory arthritis, associated with psoriasis, that significantly increases morbidity and mortality risk. We currently lack the means of predicting which patients with psoriasis will develop PsA, and a large number of patients remain undiagnosed. Regulation of gene expression through DNA methylation can potentially trigger and maintain PsA pathophysiological processes. We aimed to identify DNA methylation markers that can predict which patients with psoriasis will develop PsA prior to the onset of musculoskeletal symptoms. METHODS: Genome-wide DNA methylation was assessed in blood samples from patients with psoriasis who went on to develop arthritis (converters) and patients with psoriasis who did not (biologic naive, matched for age, sex, psoriasis duration, and duration of follow-up). Methylation differences between converters and nonconverters were identified by a multivariate linear regression model including clinical covariates (age, sex, body mass index, smoking). Predictive performance of methylation markers was assessed by developing support vector machine classification models with and without the addition of clinical variables. RESULTS: We identified a set of 36 highly relevant methylation markers (false discovery rate: adjusted P < 0.05 and a minimum change in methylation of 0.05) across 15 genes and several intergenic regions. A classification model relying on these markers identified converters and nonconverters with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9644. CONCLUSION: This study shows that DNA methylation patterns at an early stage of psoriatic disease can distinguish between patients who will develop PsA from those who will not during the same follow-up.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".