Flow-Based Spatio-Temporal Structured Prediction of Motion Dynamics
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Conditional Normalizing Flows (CNFs) are flexible generative models capable of representing complicated distributions with high dimensionality and large interdimensional correlations, making them appealing for structured output learning. Their effectiveness in modelling multivariates spatio-temporal structured data has yet to be completely investigated. We propose MotionFlow as a novel normalizing flows approach that autoregressively conditions the output distributions on the spatio-temporal input features. It combines deterministic and stochastic representations with CNFs to create a probabilistic neural generative approach that can model the variability seen in high-dimensional structured spatio-temporal data. We specifically propose to use conditional priors to factorize the latent space for the time dependent modeling. We also exploit the use of masked convolutions as autoregressive conditionals in CNFs. As a result, our method is able to define arbitrarily expressive output probability distributions under temporal dynamics in multivariate prediction tasks. We apply our method to different tasks, including trajectory prediction, motion prediction, time series forecasting, and binary segmentation, and demonstrate that our model is able to leverage normalizing flows to learn complicated time dependent conditional distributions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it