SBI<sup>++</sup>: Flexible, Ultra-fast Likelihood-free Inference Customized for Astronomical Applications
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Flagship near-future surveys targeting 108–109 galaxies across cosmic time will soon reveal the processes of galaxy assembly in unprecedented resolution. This creates an immediate computational challenge on effective analyses of the full data set. With simulation-based inference (SBI), it is possible to attain complex posterior distributions with the accuracy of traditional methods but with a >104 increase in speed. However, it comes with a major limitation. Standard SBI requires the simulated data to have characteristics identical to those of the observed data, which is often violated in astronomical surveys due to inhomogeneous coverage and/or fluctuating sky and telescope conditions. In this work, we present a complete SBI-based methodology, SBI ++ , for treating out-of-distribution measurement errors and missing data. We show that out-of-distribution errors can be approximated by using standard SBI evaluations and that missing data can be marginalized over using SBI evaluations over nearby data realizations in the training set. In addition to the validation set, we apply SBI ++ to galaxies identified in extragalactic images acquired by the James Webb Space Telescope, and show that SBI ++ can infer photometric redshifts at least as accurately as traditional sampling methods—and crucially, better than the original SBI algorithm using training data with a wide range of observational errors. SBI ++ retains the fast inference speed of ∼1 s for objects in the observational training set distribution, and additionally permits parameter inference outside of the trained noise and data at ∼1 minute per object. This expanded regime has broad implications for future applications to astronomical surveys. (Code and a Jupyter tutorial are made publicly available at https://github.com/wangbingjie/sbi_pp .)
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.020 | 0.017 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".