Characterizing Offshore Freshened Groundwater Salinity Patterns using Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion of Controlled Source Electromagnetic Data: A Case Study from the Canterbury Bight, New Zealand
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) methods are effective for investigating offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) systems, interpreting the spatial extent and salinity of OFG remains challenging. Integrating CSEM resistivity models with information on sub-surface properties, such as host-rock porosity, allows for estimates of pore-water salinity. However, deterministic inversion approaches pose challenges in quantitatively analyzing these estimates as they provide only one best-fit model with no associated estimate of model parameter uncertainty. To address this limitation, we employ a trans-dimensional Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo inversion on marine CSEM data, under the assumption of horizontal stratification, collected from the Canterbury Bight, New Zealand. We integrate the resulting posterior distributions of electrical resistivity with borehole and seismic reflection data to quantify pore-water salinity with uncertainty estimates. The results reveal a low-salinity groundwater body in the center of the survey area at varying depths, hosted by consecutive silty- and fine-sand layers approximately 20 to 60 km from the coast. These observations support the previous study’s results obtained through deterministic 2-D inversion and suggest freshening of the OFG body closer to the shore within a permeable, coarse-sand layer 40 to 150 m beneath the seafloor. This implies a potential active connection between the OFG body and the terrestrial groundwater system. We demonstrate how the Bayesian approach constrains the uncertainties in resistivity models and subsequently in pore-water salinity estimates. Our findings highlight the potential of Bayesian inversions in enhancing our understanding of OFG systems, providing crucial boundary conditions for hydrogeological modeling and sustainable water resource development.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".