Modeling temporally misaligned data across space: The case of total pollen concentration in Toronto
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Due to the high costs of monitoring environmental processes, measurements are commonly taken at different temporal scales. When observations are available at different temporal scales across different spatial locations, we name it temporal misalignment. Rather than aggregating the data and modeling it at the coarser scale, we propose a model that accounts simultaneously for the fine and coarser temporal scales. More specifically, we propose a spatiotemporal model that accounts for the temporal misalignment when one of the scales is the sum or average of the other by using the properties of the multivariate normal distribution. Inference is performed under the Bayesian framework, and uncertainty about unknown quantities is naturally accounted for. The proposed model is fitted to data simulated from different spatio‐temporal structures to check if the proposed inference procedure recovers the true values of the parameters used to generate the data. The motivating example consists of measurements of total pollen concentration across Toronto, Canada. The data were recorded daily for some sites and weekly for others. The proposed model estimates the daily measurements at sites where only weekly data was recorded and shows how the temporal aggregation of the measurements affects the associations with different covariates.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".