A retrospective cohort analysis leveraging augmented intelligence to characterize long COVID in the electronic health record: A precision medicine framework
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Physical and psychological symptoms lasting months following an acute COVID-19 infection are now recognized as post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). Accurate tools for identifying such patients could enhance screening capabilities for the recruitment for clinical trials, improve the reliability of disease estimates, and allow for more accurate downstream cohort analysis. In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed the EHR of hospitalized COVID-19 patients across three healthcare systems to develop a pipeline for better identifying patients with persistent PASC symptoms (dyspnea, fatigue, or joint pain) after their SARS-CoV-2 infection. We implemented distributed representation learning powered by the Machine Learning for modeling Health Outcomes (MLHO) to identify novel EHR features that could suggest PASC symptoms outside of typical diagnosis codes. MLHO applies an entropy-based feature selection and boosting algorithms for representation mining. These improved definitions were then used for estimating PASC among hospitalized patients. 30,422 hospitalized patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 across three healthcare systems between March 13, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The mean age of the population was 62.3 years (SD, 21.0 years) and 15,124 (49.7%) were female. We implemented the distributed representation learning technique to augment PASC definitions. These definitions were found to have positive predictive values of 0.73, 0.74, and 0.91 for dyspnea, fatigue, and joint pain, respectively. We estimated that 25 percent (CI 95%: 6-48), 11 percent (CI 95%: 6-15), and 13 percent (CI 95%: 8-17) of hospitalized COVID-19 patients will have dyspnea, fatigue, and joint pain, respectively, 3 months or longer after a COVID-19 diagnosis. We present a validated framework for screening and identifying patients with PASC in the EHR and then use the tool to estimate its prevalence among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.036 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".