Revisiting the volcanic forcing of high-latitude NorthernHemisphere eruptions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract High-latitude explosive volcanic eruptions can cause substantial cooling on a hemispheric scale. However, our current understanding of these events remains limited. In this study, we employ a whole atmosphere chemistry-climate model with prognostic stratospheric aerosols to simulate Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude explosive volcanic eruptions of similar magnitude to the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Our simulations reveal that the lifetime of sulphur dioxide and the growth of volcanic sulphate aerosols are strongly influenced by the initial state of the NH polar vortex. The stability of the polar vortex during the first weeks after an eruption determines the latitudinal dispersion of the injected gases within the stratosphere. Consequently, interannual variability of the polar vortex stability introduces a variability in the modelled cumulative radiative forcing of more than 20 %. We also test the aerosol evolution’s sensitivity to co-injection of sulphur and halogens, injection season, and injection altitude, and show how processes related to aerosol formation, lifetime, and growth impact the resulting radiative forcing. Notably, several of the sensitivities are of similar magnitude to the variability stemming from initial conditions, highlighting the significant influence of atmospheric variability. Finally, we compare the modelled volcanic sulphate deposition over the Greenland ice sheet with the relationship assumed in reconstructions of past NH extratropical eruptions. Our analysis yields an estimated Greenland transfer function for NH extratropical eruptions of 0.44 × 10⁹ km² . If applied to ice core data, this value would produce volcanic stratospheric sulphur injections from NH extratopical eruptions 23 % smaller than in currently used volcanic forcing reconstructions. Furthermore, the uncertainty attached to the Greenland transfer function for NH extratropical eruptions, which propagates into the estimate of volcanic stratospheric sulphur injection, needs to be at least doubled to account for both atmospheric variability and unknown eruption source parameters. Our results offer insights into the complex dynamics shaping the impacts of both historical and future NH high-latitude eruptions. Furthermore, they underscore the need for more accurate representation of these events in existing volcanic forcing reconstructions, with the aim of improving our understanding of their climatic impacts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".