Individualized risk assessment of distant metastases in oral cavity carcinoma: a validated predictive-score model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and validate a risk-scoring system for distant metastases (DMs) in oral cavity carcinoma (OCC). METHODS: Patients with OCC who were treated at 4 tertiary cancer institutions with curative surgery with or without postoperative radiation/chemoradiation therapy were randomly assigned to discovery or validation cohorts (3:2 ratio). Cases were staged on the basis of tumor, node, and metastasis staging according to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control guidelines. Predictors of DMs on multivariable analysis in the discovery cohort were used to develop a risk-score model and classify patients into risk groups. The utility of the risk classification was evaluated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 2749 patients were analyzed. Predictors (risk score coefficient) of DMs in the discovery cohort were the following: pathological stage (p)T3-4 (0.4), pN+ (N1: 0.8; N2: 1.0; N3: 1.5), histologic grade (G) 3 (G3, 0.7), and lymphovascular invasion (0.4). The DM risk groups were defined by the sum of the following risk score coefficients: high (>1.7), intermediate (0.7-1.7), and standard risk (<0.7). The 5-year DM rates (high/intermediate/standard risk groups) were 30%/15%/4% in the discovery cohort (C-index = 0.79) and 35%/16%/5% in the validation cohort, respectively (C-index = 0.77; both P < .001). In the whole cohort, this predictive model showed excellent discriminative ability in predicting DMs without locoregional failure (29%/11%/1%), later (>2 year) DMs (11%/4%/2%), and DMs in patients treated with surgery (20%/12%/5%), postoperative radiation therapy (34%/17%/4%), and postoperative chemoradiation therapy (39%/18%/7%) (all P < .001). The 5-year overall survival rates in the overall cohort were 25%/51%/67% (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients at higher risk for DMs were identified by use of a predictive-score model for DMs that included pT3-4, pN1/2/3, G3, and lymphovascular invasion. Identified patients may be evaluated for individualized risk-adaptive treatment escalation and/or surveillance strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".