The contagious effect of economic policy uncertainty in the post-crisis period
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose This study aims to analyze the contagious effects of economic policy uncertainties in the USA on the economies of its important trading partners, such as Japan, Canada, Mexico and the Eurozone. Design/methodology/approach In the study using the uncertainty index created by Baker et al. (2016), the interaction between variables was analyzed with structural VAR (SVAR) models. Findings According to the results obtained from the analysis, economic policy uncertainties in the USA had significant effects on the economies of its high-volume trading partners. The internal debt crisis experienced in the Eurozone after the 2008 crisis caused the European Central Bank to respond to the economic policy uncertainties in the USA with contractionary monetary policies, unlike other countries. In addition to these results, Mexico, which has a more fragile economic structure than other countries in the analysis, was more impacted by increasing uncertainties, as expected. Originality/value The present study aimed to bring a new perspective to the literature by evaluating the contagiousness of local uncertainty in the globalizing world and the monetary policies implemented as a precaution against this situation on an empirical plane.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".