Island Cities and Disaster Risk: A Study of San Juan’s Hurricane Early Warning System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Early warning systems offer a common framework for national, state, and local actors to prepare for, respond to, and understand disaster risk. Existing scholarship mostly examines early warning systems at an aggregate level for small islands, without many case studies of how early warning systems work in specific island cities. In order to address the need to expand the evidence base of case studies on early warning systems on small islands, this paper offers a multi-sector case study of San Juan’s relationship and engagement with Puerto Rico’s hurricane early warning system. It maps out various facets of the hurricane early warning system in San Juan; classifies them as hierarchical or heterarchical; and evaluates the early warning system based on the strengths and weaknesses of either approach. Finally, the paper reflects on possible implications of these findings to other island cities on subnational island territories similar to Puerto Rico.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".