Parameter estimation in optional semimartingale regression models
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The paper is devoted to the problem of parameter estimation in a multivariate optional semimartingale regression model. The family of optional semimartingales is a rich class of stochastic processes that contains càdlàg semimartingales. In general, such processes do not admit càdlàg modifications, i.e. right-continuous with finite left-limits. The weighted least squares estimator is derived, and its strong consistency is proved under general conditions on regressors. Furthermore, sequential least squares estimates are systematically studied. It is shown that such estimates have a nice statistical property called fixed accuracy. Sequential estimation procedure developed in the paper works without restrictions on dimensions of unknown parameter and of observation process. The paper contains several examples of multivariate regressions to demonstrate our results and proposed techniques.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it