Ice Core <sup>17</sup>O Reveals Past Changes in Surface Air Temperatures and Stratosphere to Troposphere Mass Exchange
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes (18O and 2H) in polar ice offer strong evidence of both long-term and abrupt climate changes. However, reliably estimating surface air temperatures from past climates has proven difficult because the relationship between 18O and temperature cannot be calibrated. In this study, we investigated the 17O and 18O of modern rain and ice cores using published data. We found that precipitation 17O is influenced by two factors: mass-dependent fractionation (MDF) that occurs during ocean evaporation, and mass-independent fractionation (MIF) that happens in the stratosphere. The MDF contribution remains constant and can be understood from studying tropical rain, as the overall movement of mass in the tropics is upward towards the stratosphere. On the other hand, the MIF effect comes from the mixing of stratospheric air in the troposphere, which is a result of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This MIF effect on precipitation 17O increases from the tropics towards the poles. Therefore, the relative 17O and 18O composition, denoted as '17O, in modern precipitation can be calibrated with surface air temperature, creating a new, independent tool for estimating past temperatures. We used this calibration along with '17O of Antarctic and Greenland ice cores and our results for past temperatures are in excellent agreement with those from borehole thermometry or gas phase analysis of air trapped in the ice. The 17O method overcomes the problems associated with using 18O for paleothermometry. Our findings align with climate models that suggest a weakening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum. Furthermore, our method could be used to monitor future changes in response to a warming climate caused by increasing greenhouse gases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".