Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Drawing on prior work in the history and philosophy of statistics, I argue that in many cases analyses powered by artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques such as machine learning (ML) are fundamentally ‘conjectural’: reliant on ex post facto abductive logics often misinterpreted in contemporary machine-learning systems as reliably reproducible truth. Here I relate what Carlo Ginzburg calls ‘the conjectural sciences’ as a historical category to their contemporary instantiation in machine learning and the practice of ‘automated conjecture’. I observe how the automation of physiognomic and phrenological concepts are exemplary of the ways in which discredited conjectural pseudosciences are being revived by today's AI research. Finally, I argue that the conceptual distinction between ‘conjectural’ and ‘empirical’ science can help support contemporary efforts to regulate the design and use of AI systems by providing conceptual and historical justification for the non-development of certain classes of systems intended to automate inference.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.050 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".