A climatology of thermodynamic vs. dynamic Arctic wintertime sea ice thickness effects during the CryoSat-2 era
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice thickness processes are affected by differing mechanisms in a changing climate. Independent observational datasets of each are essential for model validation and accurate projections of future sea ice conditions. Here, we present a monthly, Arctic-basin-wide, and 25 km resolution Eulerian estimation of thermodynamic and dynamic effects on wintertime sea ice thickness from 2010–2021. Estimates of thermodynamic growth rate are determined by coupling passive microwave-retrieved snow–ice interface temperatures to a simple sea ice thermodynamic model, total growth is calculated from a weekly Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) combination product (CS2SMOS), and dynamic effects are calculated as their difference. The dynamic effects are further separated into advection and residual effects using a sea ice motion dataset. Our results show new detail in these fields and, when summed to a basin-wide or regional scale, are in line with previous studies. Across the Arctic, dynamic effects are negative and about one-fourth the magnitude of thermodynamic growth. Thermodynamic growth varies from less than 0.1 m per month in the central Arctic to greater than 0.3 m per month in the seasonal ice zones. High positive dynamic effects of greater than 0.1 m per month, twice that of thermodynamic growth or more in some areas, are found north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, where the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre deposit ice. Strong negative dynamic effects of less than −0.2 m per month are found where the Transpolar Drift originates, nearly equal to and opposite the thermodynamic effects in these regions. Monthly results compare well with a recent study of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on sea ice thickness along the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) drift track during the winter of 2019–2020. Couplets of deformation and advection effects with opposite signs are common across the Arctic, with positive advection effects and negative deformation effects found in the Beaufort Sea and negative advection effects and positive deformation effects found in most other regions. The seasonal cycle shows residual deformation effects and overall dynamic effects increasing as the winter season progresses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".