The impact of long memory in mortality differentials on index-based longevity hedges
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In multi-population mortality modeling, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes are typically used to model the evolution of mortality differentials between different populations over time. While such processes capture only short-term serial dependence, it is found in our empirical work that mortality differentials often exhibit statistically significant long-term serial dependence, suggesting the necessity for using long memory processes instead. In this paper, we model mortality differentials between different populations with long memory processes, while preserving coherence in the resulting mortality forecasts. Our results indicate that if the dynamics of mortality differentials are modeled by long memory processes, mean reversion would be much slower, and forecast uncertainty over the long run would be higher. These results imply that the true level of population basis risk in index-based longevity hedges may be larger than what we would expect when ARMA processes are assumed. We also study how index-based longevity hedges should be calibrated if mortality differentials follow long memory processes. It is found that delta hedges are more robust than variance-minimizing hedges, in the sense that the former remains effective even if the true processes for mortality differentials are long memory ones.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it