(No-)Betting Pareto Optima Under Rank-Dependent Utility
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In a pure-exchange economy with no aggregate uncertainty, we characterize in closed form and full generality Pareto-optimal allocations between two agents who maximize (nonconcave) rank-dependent utilities (RDU). We then derive a necessary and sufficient condition for Pareto optima to be no-betting allocations (i.e., deterministic allocations or full insurance allocations). This condition depends only on the probability weighting functions of the two agents and not on their (concave) utility of wealth. Hence, with RDU preferences, it is the difference in probabilistic risk attitudes given common beliefs rather than heterogeneity or ambiguity in beliefs that is a driver of betting behavior. As by-product of our analysis, we answer the question of when sunspots matter in this economy. Funding: M. Ghossoub acknowledges financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [Grant 2018-03961].
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it