The formation of supermassive black holes from Population III.1 seeds. II. Evolution to the local universe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT We present predictions for cosmic evolution of populations of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) forming from Population III.1 seeds, i.e. early, metal-free dark matter minihaloes forming far from other sources, parametrized by isolation distance, diso. Extending previous work that explored this scenario to z = 10, we follow evolution of a $(60\, {\rm {Mpc}})^3$ volume to z = 0. We focus on evolution of SMBH comoving number densities, halo occupation fractions, angular clustering, and 3D clustering, exploring a range of diso constrained by observed local number densities of SMBHs. We also compute synthetic projected observational fields, in particular, a case comparable to the Hubble Ultra Deep Field. We compare Pop III.1 seeding to a simple halo mass threshold model, commonly adopted in cosmological simulations of galaxy formation. Major predictions of the Pop III.1 model include that all SMBHs form by z ∼ 25, after which their comoving number densities are near-constant, with low merger rates. Occupation fractions evolve to concentrate SMBHs in the most massive haloes by z = 0, but with rare cases of SMBHs in haloes down to $\sim 10^8\, M_\odot$. The diso scale at epoch of formation, e.g. $100\,$kpc-proper at z ∼ 30, i.e. $\sim 3\,$Mpc-comoving, is imprinted in the SMBH two-point angular correlation function, remaining discernible as a low-amplitude feature to z ∼ 1. The SMBH 3D two-point correlation function at z = 0 also shows lower amplitude compared to equivalently massive haloes. We discuss prospects for testing these predictions with observational surveys of SMBH populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".