Rethinking Formal Models of Partially Observable Multiagent Decision Making (Extended Abstract)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multiagent decision-making in partially observable environments is usually modelled as either an extensive-form game (EFG) in game theory or a partially observable stochastic game (POSG) in multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL). One issue with the current situation is that while most practical problems can be modelled in both formalisms, the relationship of the two models is unclear, which hinders the transfer of ideas between the two communities. A second issue is that while EFGs have recently seen significant algorithmic progress, their classical formalization is unsuitable for efficient presentation of the underlying ideas, such as those around decomposition. To solve the first issue, we introduce factored-observation stochastic games (FOSGs), a minor modification of the POSG formalism which distinguishes between private and public observation and thereby greatly simplifies decomposition. To remedy the second issue, we show that FOSGs and POSGs are naturally connected to EFGs: by "unrolling" a FOSG into its tree form, we obtain an EFG. Conversely, any perfect-recall timeable EFG corresponds to some underlying FOSG in this manner. Moreover, this relationship justifies several minor modifications to the classical EFG formalization that recently appeared as an implicit response to the model's issues with decomposition. Finally, we illustrate the transfer of ideas between EFGs and MARL by presenting three key EFG techniques -- counterfactual regret minimization, sequence form, and decomposition -- in the FOSG framework.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".