Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to the analysis of response patterns in data collection process
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Survey research, such as telephone, mail, or online questionnaires, is one of the most widely used tools for collecting sample data. We are often interested in the total number of replies that would be received during a given time period. Many researchers have developed a wide variety of curve-fitting methods to predict the response rate of recipients over time. However, previous models are based on some assumptions that are hardly justified in practice. In this paper, a new response model is proposed that is based on meaningful parameters such as the ultimate response rate of questionnaire recipients, delay rate of respondents, and average delivery time of responses. To estimate those model parameters, we use the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, which is increasingly popular in the operational research community. With mail survey data in marketing research, we test our Bayesian response model and compare its performance with those of traditional curve-fitting models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".