Augmented Gravity Model of Trade with Social Network Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
International trade has been one of the most significant economic activities among countries, and its contributions towards a country’s economic growth and sustainable development have been acknowledged. In recent times, international trade and global trade networks have received preeminent attention due to the sharp growth in trade volumes and its contributions to poverty reduction and general welfare. Despite the growth in global trade volumes, there are worrying concerns about the unprecedented changes in international trade patterns and growing imbalances in trade in recent times. Whereas China’s trade volumes have more than tripled over the last decades and have maintained the largest trade surplus spot ahead of Germany, other major trade surplus countries such as Japan, the USA, etc. have become trade deficit countries with their trade volumes increasing at a much slower pace. In view of the growing imbalances in global trade volumes, we use an augmented gravity model of trade that incorporates social network measurement, the real effective exchange rate which is a measurement of international competitiveness, as well as the Linder theory of trade, to investigate the factors that determine the export performance of countries. Using data from 51 countries for 41 years, our results indicate that the GDP of both the home country and the partner country affects the home country’s exports positively. Similarly, the real effective exchange rate REER, trade openness OPEN and dummy variables BORDER, ENGLISH, and EU have produced positive and statistically significant coefficient estimates, and these are in line with our theoretical expectations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".