On the Proposed Interstellar Origin of the USG 20140108 Fireball
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A critical review of the evidence for the interstellar origin of the USG 20140108 fireball is presented. Examining United States Government (USG) fireball velocities where independent data are available shows the former to have significant (10–15 km s −1 ) uncertainties at large speeds and highly variable radiant accuracy, with average errors in excess of 10°. The ablation model fits to the observed lightcurve are possible for normal chondritic impactors only assuming low speeds. To match the high speed and low fragmentation height of the USG 20140108 fireball would require a high-density/strength object with low drag and a highly aerodynamic shape not made of iron. We suggest the simplest explanation for the unusual characteristics of USG 20140108 is that the speed, in particular, is substantially overestimated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".