Global stagflationary pressures: Macroeconomic repercussions of pandemic and geopolitical crises
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyses key macroeconomic repercussions of the global pandemic and geo-political crises in terms of growing recessionary and inflationary pressures, and finally, the potential occurrence of stagflation. The aim of this paper is to primarily analyse the stagflation shocks of the 70s, afterwards, compare them with the current crisis for the period January 2020 - July 2022 using the example of selected developed economies (USA, Germany and France). Using descriptive analysis, it was shown that in the observed period inflationary and recessionary pressures existed in USA, Germany and France. However, those pressures could not be identified as stagflation, since that were not present simultaneously. Namely, during the pandemic crisis, recessionary pressures were present, since then the GDP growth decreased till first quarter of 2021 in analysed economies, while inflation rates were stable. On the other hand, with the recovery of economies in the second quarter of 2021, inflationary pressures became stronger and intensified by geo-political crisis. Therefore, it seems that the most visible anomaly of the global economic system in 2022 is the presence of inflationary pressures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".