Early prediction of progression to Alzheimer’s disease using multi-modality neuroimages by a novel ordinal learning model ADPacer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Machine learning has shown great promise for integrating multi-modality neuroimaging datasets to predict the risk of progression/conversion to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) for individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Most existing work aims to classify MCI patients into converters versus non-converters using a pre-defined timeframe. The limitation is a lack of granularity in differentiating MCI patients who convert at different paces. Progression pace prediction has important clinical values, which allow from more personalized interventional strategies, better preparation of patients and their caregivers, and facilitation of patient selection in clinical trials. We proposed a novel ADPacer model which formulated the pace prediction into an ordinal learning problem with a unique capability of leveraging training samples with label ambiguity to augment the training set. This capability differentiates ADPacer from existing ordinal learning algorithms. We applied ADPacer to MCI patient cohorts from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle Flagship Study of Ageing (AIBL), and demonstrated the superior performance of ADPacer compared to existing ordinal learning algorithms. We also integrated the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method with ADPacer to assess the contributions from different modalities to the model prediction. The findings are consistent with the AD literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".