Deep Convolutional Architectures for Extrapolative Forecasts in Time-dependent Flow Problems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Physical systems whose dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) find numerous applications in science and engineering. The process of obtaining the solution from such PDEs may be computationally expensive for large-scale and parameterized problems. In this work, deep learning techniques developed especially for time-series forecasts, such as LSTM and TCN, or for spatial-feature extraction such as CNN, are employed to model the system dynamics for advection-dominated problems. This paper proposes a Convolutional Autoencoder(CAE) model for compression and a CNN future-step predictor for forecasting. These models take as input a sequence of high-fidelity vector solutions for consecutive time steps obtained from the PDEs and forecast the solutions for the subsequent time steps using auto-regression; thereby reducing the computation time and power needed to obtain such high-fidelity solutions. Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling techniques such as deep auto-encoder networks are utilized to compress the high-fidelity snapshots before feeding them as input to the forecasting models in order to reduce the complexity and the required computations in the online and offline stages. The models are tested on numerical benchmarks (1D Burgers’ equation and Stoker’s dam-break problem) to assess the long-term prediction accuracy, even outside the training domain (i.e. extrapolation). The most accurate model is then used to model a hypothetical dam break in a river with complex 2D bathymetry. The proposed CNN future-step predictor revealed much more accurate forecasting than LSTM and TCN in the considered spatiotemporal problems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".