OSSOS. XXIX. The Population and Perihelion Distribution of the Detached Kuiper Belt
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The detached trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are those with semimajor axes beyond the 2:1 resonance with Neptune that are neither resonant nor scattering. Using the detached sample from the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) telescopic survey, we produce the first studies of their orbital distribution based on matching the orbits and numbers of the known TNOs after accounting for survey biases. We show that the detached TNO perihelion ( q ) distribution cannot be uniform but is instead better matched by two uniform components with a break near q ≈ 40 au. We produce parametric two-component models that are not rejectable by the OSSOS data set and estimate that there are 36,000 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>9000</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>12</mml:mn> <mml:mo>,</mml:mo> <mml:mn>000</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> detached TNOs with absolute magnitudes H r < 8.66 ( D ≳ 100 km) and semimajor axes 48 au < a < 250 au (95% confidence limits). Although we believe that these heuristic two-parameter models yield a correct population estimate, we then use the same methods to show that the perihelion distribution of a detached disk created by a simulated rogue planet matches the q distribution even better, suggesting that the temporary presence of other planets in the early solar system is a promising model to create today’s large semimajor axis TNO population. This cosmogonic simulation results in a detached TNO population estimate of 48,000 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>12</mml:mn> <mml:mo>,</mml:mo> <mml:mn>000</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>15</mml:mn> <mml:mo>,</mml:mo> <mml:mn>000</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> . Because this illustrates how difficult-to-detect q > 50 au objects are likely present, we conclude that there are (5 ± 2) × 10 4 dynamically detached TNOs, roughly twice as many as in the entire trans-Neptunian hot main belt.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it