Improving WAVEWATCH III hindcasts with machine learning
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, machine learning models are used to improve a wave hindcast database created using WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) for the Chilean coast. The models were trained with 50,505 data entries from two buoys and eleven ADCPs. The machine learning models significantly improved the results from WW3 for three parameters: significant wave height , mean wave period, and mean wave direction. Our best performing model, which is based on a convolutional neural network and uses the directional wave spectrum as input, reduced root mean squared errors in the significant wave height by 71%, peak wave period by 61% and mean wave direction by 63%. Most importantly, our method dramatically improved the mean wave direction in four locations where WW3 was particularly problematic (absolute error reduction of 20°). The neural network corrections can also be applied to other locations if sea states conditions are similar to the training data. The research presented here show that machine learning techniques are a fast and effective way to improve existing wave hindcast databases at relatively low cost.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it