Using polygenic risk scores to investigate the evolution of smoking and mental health outcomes in <scp>UK</scp> biobank participants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Mendelian randomization studies report a bi-directional relation between cigarette smoking and mental disorders, yet from a clinical standpoint, mental disorders are the focus of treatment. Here, we used an event history framework to understand their evolution in the life course. Our objective was to estimate the relative contribution of genetic predispositions and self-reported smoking status (never, former, and present smoker) to hospitalizations for major depression, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia. METHODS: We calculated polygenic risk scores (PRS) for ever smoking, pack-years of smoking as a proportion of adult life, and neuroticism in 337,140 UK Biobank participants of white British ancestry. These PRS and self-reported smoking status were entered as explanatory variables in survival models for hospitalization. RESULTS: ) were 23%, 5.7%, and 5.7% for pack-years, ever smoking, and neuroticism respectively. PRS pack-years and PRS neuroticism were associated with higher hospitalization risk for mental disorders in all smoking status groups. The hazard for mental health hospitalization was higher in both previous (HR: 1.50, CI: 1.35-1.67) and current (HR: 3.58, 2.97-4.31) compared to never smokers, after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSION: Since genetic liabilities for smoking and neuroticism are fixed at conception and smoking initiation generally started before age 20, our results show that preventing smoking in adolescents probably prevents the development of mental disorders.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".