The Long-term Spectral Changes of Eta Carinae: Are they Caused by a Dissipating Occulter as Indicated by cmfgen Models?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Eta Carinae (η Car) exhibits a unique set of P Cygni profiles with both broad and narrow components. Over many decades, the spectrum has changed—there has been an increase in observed continuum fluxes and a decrease in Fe ii and H i emission-line equivalent widths. The spectrum is evolving toward that of a P Cygni star such as P Cygni itself and HDE 316285. The spectral evolution has been attributed to intrinsic variations such as a decrease in the mass-loss rate of the primary star or differential evolution in a latitudinal-dependent stellar wind. However, intrinsic wind changes conflict with three observational results: the steady long-term bolometric luminosity; the repeating X-ray light curve over the binary period; and the constancy of the dust-scattered spectrum from the Homunculus. We extend previous work that showed a secular strengthening of P Cygni absorptions by adding more orbital cycles to overcome temporary instabilities and by examining more atomic transitions. cmfgen modeling of the primary wind shows that a time-decreasing mass-loss rate is not the best explanation for the observations. However, models with a small dissipating absorber in our line of sight can explain both the increase in brightness and changes in the emission and P Cygni absorption profiles. If the spectral evolution is caused by the dissipating circumstellar medium, and not by intrinsic changes in the binary, the dynamical timescale to recover from the Great Eruption is much less than a century, different from previous suggestions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".