Degree-Day Summation and Hatching of the Forest Tent Caterpillar, <i>Malacosoma Disstria</i> (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
(excerpt) The forest tent caterpillar, Malacosoma disstria (Htibner), is a common defoliater of deciduous trees throughout most of the United States and Canada. It is a well known outbreak species, whose populations erupt periodically (every 10 to 16 years) when forest conditions are suitable. Typical outbreaks last three to six years in a given geographic area and then collapse as quickly as they arise. This note documents the relation between forest tent caterpillar egg hatching in the field and heat accumulation (degree-days) leading up to hatch. This information will permit (a) predicting the date on which eggs will hatch by summing degree days during the insect's overwintering period, and (b) comparing with populations in other years and areas. The data came from an outbreak in northern Minnesota that began near International Falls in 1966 and collapsed in 1972 (Witter et al., 1975).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".