Dissemination of information in event-based surveillance, a case study of Avian Influenza
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) tools, such as HealthMap and PADI-web, monitor online news reports and other unofficial sources, with the primary aim to provide timely information to users from health agencies on disease outbreaks occurring worldwide. In this work, we describe how outbreak-related information disseminates from a primary source, via a secondary source, to a definitive aggregator, an EBS tool, during the 2018/19 avian influenza season. We analysed 337 news items from the PADI-web and 115 news articles from HealthMap EBS tools reporting avian influenza outbreaks in birds worldwide between July 2018 and June 2019. We used the sources cited in the news to trace the path of each outbreak. We built a directed network with nodes representing the sources (characterised by type, specialisation, and geographical focus) and edges representing the flow of information. We calculated the degree as a centrality measure to determine the importance of the nodes in information dissemination. We analysed the role of the sources in early detection (detection of an event before its official notification) to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) and late detection. A total of 23% and 43% of the avian influenza outbreaks detected by the PADI-web and HealthMap, respectively, were shared on time before their notification. For both tools, national and local veterinary authorities were the primary sources of early detection. The early detection component mainly relied on the dissemination of nationally acknowledged events by online news and press agencies, bypassing international reporting to the WAOH. WOAH was the major secondary source for late detection, occupying a central position between national authorities and disseminator sources, such as online news. PADI-web and HealthMap were highly complementary in terms of detected sources, explaining why 90% of the events were detected by only one of the tools. We show that current EBS tools can provide timely outbreak-related information and priority news sources to improve digital disease surveillance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.023 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".