Hyperferritinemic sepsis, macrophage activation syndrome, and mortality in a pediatric research network: a causal inference analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: One of five global deaths are attributable to sepsis. Hyperferritinemic sepsis (> 500 ng/mL) is associated with increased mortality in single-center studies. Our pediatric research network's objective was to obtain rationale for designing anti-inflammatory clinical trials targeting hyperferritinemic sepsis. METHODS: We assessed differences in 32 cytokines, immune depression (low whole blood ex vivo TNF response to endotoxin) and thrombotic microangiopathy (low ADAMTS13 activity) biomarkers, seven viral DNAemias, and macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) defined by combined hepatobiliary dysfunction and disseminated intravascular coagulation, and mortality in 117 children with hyperferritinemic sepsis (ferritin level > 500 ng/mL) compared to 280 children with sepsis without hyperferritinemia. Causal inference analysis of these 41 variables, MAS, and mortality was performed. RESULTS: Mortality was increased in children with hyperferritinemic sepsis (27/117, 23% vs 16/280, 5.7%; Odds Ratio = 4.85, 95% CI [2.55-9.60]; z = 4.728; P-value < 0.0001). Hyperferritinemic sepsis had higher C-reactive protein, sCD163, IL-22, IL-18, IL-18 binding protein, MIG/CXCL9, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-17a, IFN-γ, IP10/CXCL10, MCP-1/CCL2, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, TNF, MCP-3, IL-2RA (sCD25), IL-16, M-CSF, and SCF levels; lower ADAMTS13 activity, sFasL, whole blood ex vivo TNF response to endotoxin, and TRAIL levels; more Adenovirus, BK virus, and multiple virus DNAemias; and more MAS (P-value < 0.05). Among these variables, only MCP-1/CCL2 (the monocyte chemoattractant protein), MAS, and ferritin levels were directly causally associated with mortality. MCP-1/CCL2 and hyperferritinemia showed direct causal association with depressed ex vivo whole blood TNF response to endotoxin. MCP-1/CCL2 was a mediator of MAS. MCP-1/CCL2 and MAS were mediators of hyperferritinemia. CONCLUSIONS: These findings establish hyperferritinemic sepsis as a high-risk condition characterized by increased cytokinemia, viral DNAemia, thrombotic microangiopathy, immune depression, macrophage activation syndrome, and death. The causal analysis provides rationale for designing anti-inflammatory trials that reduce macrophage activation to improve survival and enhance infection clearance in pediatric hyperferritinemic sepsis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".