Sequentially coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical simulation for geomechanical assessments of caprock integrity in SAGD
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Oil sand reservoirs and caprock undergo deformations triggered by pore pressure increases and thermal induced stresses during the steam-assisted-gravity-drainage (SAGD) processes. Geomechanical assessments are mandated by energy regulators to evaluate the caprock integrity and ensure the safe SAGD operations. Commercial reservoir simulation packages started to incorporate geomechanical effects when predicting flow response; however, these geomechanical modules are not able to correctly model the plastic deformations caused by thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) interactions, which has a first order effect on predicting steam chamber propagation and evaluating caprock integrity. An integrated coupled THM modeling methodology is proposed here to improve the modeling of reservoir deformations and caprock integrity in a heterogeneous oil sand reservoir with interbedded shale barriers. The pressure and temperature front are found to propagate at different speed and that dominate the elastic and plastic deformations caused by changes of shear and mean effective stress. Therefore, four stages are divided in the SAGD process that can be interpretations of changes in stress paths including buildup of pore pressure, generation and dissipation of thermal induced stresses. The response surfaces of minimum factor of safety are introduced and computed to provide a conservative estimate for caprock integrity during SAGD of a heterogeneous reservoir with multiple layers of caprocks in Athabasca oil sands.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".