High-Resolution Lead–Lag Relations Between Barents Sea Temperatures, the AMOC and the AMO During 1971–2018
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The direction of heat transport from the atmosphere to the Barents Sea, and between the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic is important for understanding the interplay between Greenland ice melting and anthropogenic forcing.Here, we show how heat has been transported between water bodies by using a high-resolution lead-lag technique that identifies leading relations between cyclic temperature series.The results demonstrate that near-surface ocean temperature (0-30 m) in the Barents Sea led the temperature changes in its intermediate waters (100-200 m) during the period 1971 to 2018 inferring that heat transport is from the atmosphere to the intermediate waters.The Barents Sea's temperatures lagged the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from 1971 to 2000.The AMOC was leading the Barents Sea near-bottom temperatures in the West (the Bear Island Through) during 1980-2018 but was both leading and lagging in the Barents Sea Northeast.RSUM [Traduit par la rdaction] La direction du transport de chaleur de l'atmosphre vers la mer de Barents, et entre la mer de Barents et l'Atlantique Nord, est importante pour comprendre l'interaction entre la fonte des glaces du Groenland et le forage anthropique.Nous montrons ici comment la chaleur a t transporte entre les masses d'eau en utilisant une technique de trane haute rsolution qui dtermine les relations principales entre les sries de tempratures cycliques.Les rsultats montrent que la temprature de l'ocan proche de la surface (0-30 m) dans la mer de Barents prcde les changements de temprature dans ses eaux intermdiaires (100-200 m) au cours de la priode 1971-2018, ce qui permet de dduire que le transport de chaleur s'effectue de l'atmosphre vers les eaux intermdiaires.Les tempratures de la mer de Barents sont en retard par rapport la circulation mridienne de retournement de l'Atlantique (AMOC) et l'oscillation multidcennale de l'Atlantique (AMO) de 1971 2000.L'AMOC tait en avance sur les tempratures prs du fond de la mer de Barents l'ouest (le Bear) pendant la priode 1980-2018, mais tait la fois en avance et en retard dans le nord-est de la mer de Barents.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".