High-Resolution Lead–Lag Relations Between Barents Sea Temperatures, the AMOC and the AMO During 1971–2018
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The direction of heat transport from the atmosphere to the Barents Sea, and between the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic is important for understanding the interplay between Greenland ice melting and anthropogenic forcing.Here, we show how heat has been transported between water bodies by using a high-resolution lead-lag technique that identifies leading relations between cyclic temperature series.The results demonstrate that near-surface ocean temperature (0-30 m) in the Barents Sea led the temperature changes in its intermediate waters (100-200 m) during the period 1971 to 2018 inferring that heat transport is from the atmosphere to the intermediate waters.The Barents Sea's temperatures lagged the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from 1971 to 2000.The AMOC was leading the Barents Sea near-bottom temperatures in the West (the Bear Island Through) during 1980-2018 but was both leading and lagging in the Barents Sea Northeast.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] La direction du transport de chaleur de l'atmosphère vers la mer de Barents, et entre la mer de Barents et l'Atlantique Nord, est importante pour comprendre l'interaction entre la fonte des glaces du Groenland et le forçage anthropique.Nous montrons ici comment la chaleur a été transportée entre les masses d'eau en utilisant une technique de traînée à haute résolution qui détermine les relations principales entre les séries de températures cycliques.Les résultats montrent que la température de l'océan proche de la surface (0-30 m) dans la mer de Barents précède les changements de température dans ses eaux intermédiaires (100-200 m) au cours de la période 1971-2018, ce qui permet de déduire que le transport de chaleur s'effectue de l'atmosphère vers les eaux intermédiaires.Les températures de la mer de Barents sont en retard par rapport à la circulation méridienne de retournement de l'Atlantique (AMOC) et à l'oscillation multidécennale de l'Atlantique (AMO) de 1971 à 2000.L'AMOC était en avance sur les températures près du fond de la mer de Barents à l'ouest (île Bear) pendant la période 1980-2018, mais était à la fois en avance et en retard dans le nord-est de la mer de Barents.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".