The Plea Discount and the Time Penalty in Canada: Impacts of the Guilty Plea at Sentencing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The plea discount (or trial penalty) refers to disparity in sentencing resulting from the decision to plead guilty or proceed to trial. It is often suggested that pleading guilty reduces one’s odds of being imprisoned or reduces the length of one’s sentence. While plea discounts haves been studied extensively in the United States, there is very little indication in Canada as to their existence or scope. Using data from the Integrated Criminal Court Survey ( N = 2,198,954), this study analyzes logit-negative binomial hurdle models to study the plea discount in Canadian criminal courts and how it varies by court resource usage. It finds that the probability of being incarcerated is nominally higher after pleading guilty, but that pleading guilty reduces custodial sentence length. Further, it finds that the amount of resources used to resolve a case moderates the impact of a guilty plea in both situations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.032 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".