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Record W4386636102 · doi:10.1007/s44199-023-00062-8

Smoothed Dirichlet Distribution

2023· article· en· W4386636102 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Statistical Theory and Applications · 2023
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Methods and Mixture Models
Canadian institutionsUniversity of ManitobaUniversity of Winnipeg
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDirichlet distributionMultinomial distributionMathematicsGeneralized Dirichlet distributionCategorical distributionConcentration parameterDistribution (mathematics)Marginal distributionApplied mathematicsJoint probability distributionProbability distributionStatisticsEconometricsDirichlet's principleMathematical analysisRandom variableInverse-chi-squared distributionDistribution fitting

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract When the cells are ordinal in the multinomial distribution, i.e., when cells have a natural ordering, guaranteeing that the borrowing information among neighboring cells makes sense conceptually. In this paper, we introduce a novel probability distribution for borrowing information among neighboring cells in order to provide reliable estimates for cell probabilities. The proposed smoothed Dirichlet distribution forces the probabilities of neighboring cells to be closer to each other than under the standard Dirichlet distribution. Basic properties of the proposed distribution, including normalizing constant, moments, and marginal distributions, are developed. Sample generation of smoothed Dirichlet distribution is discussed using the acceptance-rejection algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed smoothed Dirichlet distribution using 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) batters data.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.459
Threshold uncertainty score0.157

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.013
GPT teacher head0.307
Teacher spread0.294 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it