Research on Predicting Customers' Next Purchase Based on Shopping Basket Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Thanks to the rapid development of e-commerce and online shopping, a large amount of shopping basket data has been accumulated. How to mine the useful information in shopping cart data to predict customers' next purchase is an important problem in commercial data analysis, which is widely used in the fields of online advertising and product recommendation. In this paper, three prediction methods are proposed, including frequency-based prediction, rule-based prediction and similarity-based prediction. Moreover, evaluations and analysis of these three methods are conducted on the public dataset. It is found that the items that were frequently purchased by consumers in the past are more likely to continue to be purchased due of the higher prediction accuracy of the frequency-based methods. On the other hand, similarity-based item prediction methods also yielded good results because there is also a significant overlap in the items that similar users want to purchase. Therefore, it is concluded that in practical applications, frequency and similarity-based prediction methods can be applied to predict consumers' next purchases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".