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Record W4386752858 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3344960/v1

AEformer: Asymmetric Embedding Transformer for Stock Market Prediction based on Investor Sentiment

2023· preprint· en· W4386752858 on OpenAlexaff
Linling Jiang, Mingli Zhang, Fan Zhang

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2023
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
FundersNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsStock marketStock (firearms)EconometricsEmbeddingVolatility (finance)TransformerFinancial economicsComputer scienceEconomicsArtificial intelligenceEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Stock market prediction is an essential topic in economics. However, owing to the noise and volatility of the stock market, timely market prediction is generally considered one of the most challenging problems. Several researchers have introduced investor sentiment into stock prediction models and have achieved good results. Applying investor sentiment to high-frequency stock price forecasts can lead to risk aversion and improved returns. We have designed a model for high-frequency stock price prediction known as asymmetric embedding transformer (AEformer) that uses investor sentiment. We filtered stock comments using category information and enhanced the utilization of investor sentiment for stock prediction by incorporating an asymmetric embedding layer combined with a channel-wise independent self-attention mechanism. The experimental results show that AEformer outperforms the other models in high-frequency stock predictions using investor sentiment. Moreover, the asymmetric embedding layer is effective in improving the forecasting performance of transformer-based models.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.072
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.066
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Meta-epidemiology (narrow), Scholarly communication, Research integrity, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.846
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0720.066
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0080.006
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0010.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.347
GPT teacher head0.526
Teacher spread0.179 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2023
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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