The Effect of Smoothing on the Interpretation of Time Series Data: A COVID-19 Case Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We conduct a controlled crowd-sourced experiment of COVID-19 case data visualization to study if and how different plotting methods, time windows, and the nature of the data influence people's interpretation of real-world COVID-19 data and people's prediction of how the data will evolve in the future. We find that a 7-day backward average smoothed line successfully reduces the distraction of periodic data patterns compared to just unsmoothed bar data. Additionally, we find that the presence of a smoothed line helps readers form a consensus on how the data will evolve in the future. We also find that the fixed 7-day smoothing window size leads to different amounts of perceived recurring patterns in the data depending on the time period plotted -- this suggests that varying the smoothing window size together with the plot window size might be a promising strategy to influence the perception of spurious patterns in the plot.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.018 | 0.093 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".