The Evolution of Life Sentences For Second-Degree Murder: Parole Ineligibility and Time Spent in Prison
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canada's murder sentencing regime has been in effect since 1976, and yet very little data has examined what these sentences actually mean for those convicted. This paper begins to fill this gap by examining the meaning of a life sentence for those convicted of second degree murder in Canada. Using data provided by the Correctional Investigator, we examine both the parole ineligibility periods imposed by sentencing judges, and how long people are serving before a grant of full parole over time from 1977 to 2020. We found statistically significant increases over time in both judicial parole ineligibility periods, and in how long people are serving beyond their first full parole eligibility date. We also found that Indigenous persons are more likely to serve longer periods of time past their parole ineligibility date. We conclude that, at every point in the process, sentencing for murder has become increasingly harsh over time with no obvious public safety rationale for this increase.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".