Multi-treatment casual analysis using improved meta learner and uplift tree
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Causality is an appealing but challenging domain for researchers in generations. Recently, researchers have shifted their focus to combining traditional causal inference methods and machine learning models to get both advantages. Meta learner is an algorithm for causal inference, including T-learner, S-learner, and X-learner. Another popular way in causal inference is based on decision tree learning, one of the predictive modeling approaches. Many existing works focus on estimating the causal effect of binary treatment. However, there are also many cases in the real world when the treatment has more than two values. These methods cannot be used directly in multivalued treatment cases. According to the mathematization of causality, we improved the binary meta-learner process to be applicable in multi-treatment situations. At the same time, we also preliminarily explored the technique of uplifting trees. Finally, we applied the two methods to analyze parents' and children's learning situations in hundreds of families to test the effect of improvement.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it